Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
A measure of US inflation tracking average price changes in goods and services consumed by households, released monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
What is Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)?
The PCE Price Index calculates inflation using data from business surveys on consumer spending, covering a broader range of expenditures than CPI, including items paid by employers like health insurance. For August 2025, the PCE inflation rate stood at 2.7% year-over-year, up from 2.6% in July, with a monthly increase of 0.2%. It uses a chain-type index, adjusting weights dynamically for consumer substitution, such as switching from beef to chicken when prices rise.
The Federal Reserve prefers PCE over CPI for its 2% inflation target because it better reflects changing consumption patterns, with historical data showing PCE often 0.3-0.5 percentage points lower than CPI annually. In 2025, services contributed 65% to PCE, driving recent inflation with a 3.8% annual rise, while goods increased 1.2%. The index is revised quarterly with comprehensive data, like the July 2025 update incorporating 2023 annual surveys, adjusting prior estimates by up to 0.2 points.
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