Bitcoin Supply Curve and Halving

The Bitcoin supply curve is a step-wise logarithmic function that schedules the issuance of 21 million total digital assets over approximately 140 years via halvings, which reduce mining rewards every 210,000 blocks to enforce scarcity.

What is Bitcoin Supply Curve and Halving?

The Bitcoin supply curve defines the predetermined rate of new digital asset issuance, starting at 50 BTC per block in 2009 and halving every 210,000 blocks (roughly four years) until the block reward reaches zero around 2140, capping the total supply at exactly 21 million BTC. This creates a predictable, diminishing issuance schedule. As of 2025, the circulating supply stands at 19.92 million BTC, with roughly 1.08 million BTC left to mine and daily new supply at 450 BTC.

Halvings enforce this curve by slashing the block reward by 50%, reducing inflation from 1.7% pre-2024 to 0.85% post-April 20, 2024 event (block 840,000), where rewards dropped from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. Historical halvings include: November 28, 2012 (50 to 25 BTC, block 210,000); July 9, 2016 (25 to 12.5 BTC, block 420,000); and May 11, 2020 (12.5 to 6.25 BTC, block 630,000). The next halving, at block 1,050,000 around April 16-20, 2028, will cut rewards to 1.5625 BTC, halving annual issuance to 164,250 BTC and inflation to 0.42%. This mechanism mimics gold’s scarcity but with mathematical precision, driving value through reduced supply amid growing demand.